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- Market Minutes for the week of January 9th 01/13/17Market Minutes for the week of January 9th: “The taste of defeat has a richness of experience all its own.” — Bill Bradley The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) says that small business confidence in the U.S. rose to a 12-year high in December. The index of small business confidence rose to 105.8, the highest reading since December 2004. NFIB economist Bill Dunkelberg: “In this month’s report, we are also finding evidence that higher optimism is leading to increased business activity, such as capital spending and investment.” The Commerce Department said that U.S. wholesale inventories rose by 1.0% in November, the largest monthly increase since November of 2014. This number suggests that inventory investment would again support stronger 4th quarter GDP growth, maybe close to 3%. The Commerce Department said that retail sales in December rose by 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimated. Auto sales were up 2.4%. Online sales Read more...
- Market Minutes for the week of January 2nd 01/06/17Market Minutes for the week of January 2rd: “Ninety-nine percent of failures come from people who have the habit of making excuses.” — George Washington Carver The five best performing assets in 2016: 1.) Brazilian stock market +68.9%. 2.) Brent crude oil +52.5%. 3.) Russian stock market +51.0%. 4.) WTI crude oil +45.3%. 5.) Sugar +27.9%. The five worst performing assets in 2016: 1.) Cocoa -33.1%. 2.) Chinese stock market -18.3%. 3.) British pound/U.S. dollar -16.9%. 4.) Wheat -13.8%. 5.) Italian stock market – 13.4%. Other notables: European stock market (Stoxx 600) -4.9%; iShares 20+ year U.S. Treasury bond ETF -1.4%; Japanese stock market +3.8%; S&P 500 +9.5%; Nasdaq +7.5%; DJIA +13.4; High-grade copper +16.5%. The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan rose to 98.2 in December, the highest reading since January of 2004. The Chicago PMI index fell by 3 points in December to 54.6 and Read more...
- Market Minutes for the week of December 19th 12/23/16Market Minutes for the week of December 19th: “Tomorrow is the first blank page of a 365 page book. Write a good one.” – Brad Paisley (This one of my favorite quotes for an upcoming new year.) “2016 is no different than other years, but it does have a twist – The Orange Swan, in the form of President-elect Donald J. Trump” – Doug Kass Dow 20,000. What does that mean? What does that say? Nothing really, it is more of a psychological milestone than anything else since the DJIA is a collection of just 30 stocks (4 of which are responsible for 35% of the move up since the election). A move from 18,000 to 19,000 represents a 5.5% increase. A move from 19,000 to 20,000 is a 5% increase. That said, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to be the most watched measure of U.S. stock market performance Read more...
- Market Minutes for the week of December 12th 12/16/16Market Minutes for the week of December 12th: “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so sure of themselves, and wiser people are full of doubts.” – Bertrand Russell Why are interest rates and bond yields continuing to rise? 1.) The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are slowing their monthly flow of purchases. 2.) U.K central bank chair Mark Carney and Fed chair Janet Yellen have admitted that they are willing to tolerate higher inflation. 3.) The commodity bear market has ended as a year of immense supply cuts are finally filtering through. The Journal of Commerce of industrial materials index is at the highest level since June of 2015 and is up 29% year over year. 4.) The Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker was at 3.9% in October, the highest level in 8 years. 5.) Foreign governments remain aggressive sellers Read more...
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